Macarthur 4-0 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 24 Apr 2026

📅24/04/2026 · 🕒12:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.27
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
13%
7.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.42
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.8
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
14%
5.76
X/2
12%
5.99
X/X
8%
5.46
2/1
7%
23.95
2/2
19%
3.63
2/X
8%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.8 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+2.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.0pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +17%
1.66/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.12
+0% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 81%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
26.8 Crosses 15.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.70 xG 1.59
53% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
431 Passes 377
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
34 Box Touches 24
26 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.11.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-1 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
20.01.2025 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
14.12.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-2 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
27.04.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 3-0 HT 2-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.02.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
18.12.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
4-0
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.88 xG 1.36
55% Ball Possession 45%
26 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
338 Passes 281
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
50 Box Touches 26
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur cruised past Wellington Phoenix 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; Macarthur found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Macarthur had 55% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 45%, shots finished 26-12, expected goals 2.88 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Macarthur and 1.83 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?

Macarthur 4-0 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 24/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 38%, draw 23%, Wellington Phoenix 39%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Wellington Phoenix), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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