Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-1
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
0-1
HT 0-1
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics
Macarthur edged past Wellington Phoenix 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 23% / 38% — and on the day Macarthur made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 55% of the ball to Macarthur's 45%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.65 to 1.95 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Macarthur's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 0.67 for Macarthur.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur?
Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur?
Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 39%, draw 23%, Macarthur 38%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.