Rouen 3-1 Aubagne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 24 Apr 2026

📅24/04/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.43
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.9
No
44%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.53
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.06
6+ Goals
8%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.74
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
3%
16.85
X/1
12%
3.86
X/2
7%
13.25
X/X
13%
6.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.25
2/2
10%
11.3
2/X
3%
19.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
65%
-5.8pp
20%
Draw
20%
-0.3pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+6.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.8pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rouen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Aubagne EU Bookmakers 17%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.91/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.33
+10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
372 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rouen
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Aubagne
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
05.12.2025 Aubagne Aubagne 1-1 HT 0-1 Rouen Rouen FR3
24.01.2025 Rouen Rouen 0-1 HT 0-1 Aubagne Aubagne FR3
23.08.2024 Aubagne Aubagne 2-1 HT 0-1 Rouen Rouen FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rouen
3-1
AWAY Aubagne
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rouen vs Aubagne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rouen saw off Aubagne 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rouen as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Rouen had 54% of the ball to Aubagne's 46%, shots finished 22-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Aubagne led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Rouen and 1.33 for Aubagne.

What was the final score of Rouen vs Aubagne?

Rouen 3-1 Aubagne in the France - National League 1 on 24/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rouen vs Aubagne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rouen win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Rouen 60%, draw 20%, Aubagne 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rouen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rouen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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