Sturm Graz 1-1 Wolfsberger AC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 24 May 2025

Sturm Graz
1-1 HT 1-0
Wolfsberger AC
📅24/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Austria - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.29
2-3 Goals
34%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
9.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.29 — our 29% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.51
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1 EV+ ✗
24%
4.9
X/2
6%
8.54
X/X
12%
5.23
2/1
7%
22.45
2/2
14%
6.01
2/X
7%
13.35
Value flag · X/1 at 4.9 — our 24% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-1.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sturm Graz v Wolfsberger AC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsberger AC EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +23%
1.90/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.35
+10% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +72%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 71%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
20.5 Crosses 14.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Wolfsberger AC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.57 xG 1.35
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
311 Passes 205
72% Pass Accuracy 64%
22 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.03.2025 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
15.02.2025 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 3-0 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
22.09.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-3 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU
03.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU
08.10.2023 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 1-2 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
16.10.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-2 HT 0-1 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU

Sturm Graz 1-1 Wolfsberger AC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-1
AWAY Wolfsberger AC
1.01 xG 0.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
353 Passes 300
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sturm Graz at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 52% of the ball to Wolfsberger AC's 48%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.01 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.67 for Wolfsberger AC.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?

Sturm Graz 1-1 Wolfsberger AC in the Austria - Bundesliga on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 48%, draw 27%, Wolfsberger AC 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sturm Graz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ BTTS Yes
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