Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Manchester City v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals
Manchester City vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Manchester City
İNP
3-1
HT 3-0
Aston Villa
İNP
Manchester City 1-2 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa squeezed past Manchester City 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Manchester City at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) came in.
On the day, Manchester City had 52% of the ball to Aston Villa's 48%, shots finished 16-12.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Manchester City and 1.17 for Aston Villa.
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Aston Villa?
Manchester City 1-2 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Aston Villa?
Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 68%, draw 18%, Aston Villa 15%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester City) went the other way.