Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Chicago Fire v Toronto FC — Team-Based Signals
Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Chicago Fire 2-1 Toronto FC — Actual Match Statistics
Chicago Fire nicked a narrow win over Toronto FC 2-1. It stood 1-1 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chicago Fire as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (55%) landed.
On the day, Chicago Fire had 53% of the ball to Toronto FC's 47%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.60 to 1.54.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chicago Fire had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chicago Fire and 0.83 for Toronto FC.
Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC Result & Final Score
Chicago Fire 2 - 1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 71%, draw 17%, Toronto FC 12%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chicago Fire), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.