Fagiano Okayama 2-3 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 24 May 2026

📅24/05/2026 · 🕒06:55 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.95
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.53
6+ Goals
10%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 30% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.2pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.9pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.27/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.66
-28% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
22.3 Crosses 16.6
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.88 xG 1.37
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
262 Passes 360
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
18.03.2026 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 1-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
18.10.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-2 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
02.04.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 2-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
21.03.2015 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
2-3
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka edged past Fagiano Okayama 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; Cerezo Osaka found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 54% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 46%, shots finished 14-13.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.50 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka?

Fagiano Okayama 2-3 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 36%, draw 24%, Cerezo Osaka 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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