Indy Eleven 3-1 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 24 May 2026

Indy Eleven
3-1 HT 1-0
Lexington
📅24/05/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2026

Indy Eleven vs Lexington Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 29% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.6pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.5pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.5pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Indy Eleven v Lexington — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.32/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.17
+1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -65% / -9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
20.5 Crosses 19.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Indy Eleven vs Lexington Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Lexington
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.42 xG 1.31
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
234 Passes 568
77% Pass Accuracy 91%
12 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
23.03.2025 Lexington Lexington 1-1 HT 0-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP

Indy Eleven 3-1 Lexington — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
3-1
AWAY Lexington
2.20 xG 0.29
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
300 Passes 321
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven beat Lexington 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 31% / 31%) promised a tight game; Indy Eleven found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 49% of the ball to Lexington's 51%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.20 to 0.29.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Lexington?

Indy Eleven 3-1 Lexington in the USL Championship on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 39%, draw 31%, Lexington 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Indy Eleven), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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