Miami FC 4-3 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 24 May 2026

📅24/05/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.65
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
58%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
8.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
37%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+2.2pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.8pp
59%
Away Win
60%
-1.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.6pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 64%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -7%
1.14/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.11
+8% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -10%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
270 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 82%
14.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
12.6 Crosses 21.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Louisville City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.94 xG 1.79
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
340 Passes 311
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2026 Louisville City Louisville City 4-1 HT 3-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
12.10.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
17.08.2025 Miami FC Miami FC 2-4 HT 2-2 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
03.10.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 3-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
02.06.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
21.09.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 4-3 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
4-3
AWAY Louisville City
1.56 xG 1.53
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 9
230 Passes 381
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 44
5 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Miami FC nicked a narrow win over Louisville City 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Louisville City carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Miami FC had 39% of the ball to Louisville City's 61%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 1.56 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Miami FC and 2.83 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Louisville City?

Miami FC 4-3 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 21%, draw 21%, Louisville City 59%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Louisville City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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