Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-0 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 24 May 2026

📅24/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.39
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.15
6+ Goals
13%
11.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
60%
-1.1pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.0pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +14%
1.98/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.31
+17% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +33%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
22.6 Crosses 15.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.63 xG 1.24
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
290 Passes 377
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
11.08.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
07.05.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 HT 2-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
16.05.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-5 HT 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
16.05.2021 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
3-0
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.57 xG 0.52
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
306 Passes 374
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies swept aside Phoenix Rising 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 47% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 53%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.57 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.60 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Phoenix Rising?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-0 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 59%, draw 22%, Phoenix Rising 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✗ Under 2.5
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