Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒04:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.9
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
2.96
6+ Goals
13%
9.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
49%
+3.0pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.0pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.42/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.67
+17% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
308 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
17.6 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.91 xG 1.36
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
295 Passes 330
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.08.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
07.05.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 HT 2-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
16.05.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-5 HT 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
16.05.2021 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1-1
AWAY Phoenix Rising
0.50 xG 0.76
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 8
270 Passes 569
87% Pass Accuracy 93%
15 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Phoenix Rising shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tampa Bay Rowdies at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 34% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 66%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.50 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.50 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Phoenix Rising?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 52%, draw 22%, Phoenix Rising 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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