Louisville City 4-1 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.34
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
12%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.05
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
27%
2.81
6+ Goals
12%
8.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1/2
3%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
4%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
70%
-1.6pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.0pp
12%
Away Win
11%
+0.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +19%
1.96/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/2.13
+7% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
25.3 Crosses 11.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Miami FC
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.90 xG 0.94
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
317 Passes 338
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.10.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
17.08.2025 Miami FC Miami FC 2-4 HT 2-2 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
03.10.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 3-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
02.06.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
21.09.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 4-3 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
14.05.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 3-1 HT 1-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City cruised past Miami FC 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Louisville City and 1.33 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Miami FC?

Louisville City 4-1 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 69%, draw 20%, Miami FC 12%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
14 Mar 2026
22:00 Loudoun United vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Analysis →
23:00 Detroit City vs Brooklyn Analysis →
23:00 Rhode Island vs Sporting JAX Analysis →