Frosinone 3-4 FC Bari 1908 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 24 Jul 2024

Frosinone
3-4 HT 2-2
FC Bari 1908
📅24/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Frosinone vs FC Bari 1908 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
36%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.54
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 29% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
50%
-10.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
25%
+11.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Frosinone v FC Bari 1908 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 29%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
+18% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +61%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Frosinone vs FC Bari 1908 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Bari 1908
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.85 xG 0.28
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
494 Passes 252
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 6
22 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
11.03.2023 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
22.10.2022 Frosinone Frosinone 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
10.02.2018 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
16.09.2017 Frosinone Frosinone 3-2 HT 2-2 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
11.03.2017 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
16.10.2016 Frosinone Frosinone 3-1 HT 2-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB

Frosinone 3-4 FC Bari 1908 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
3-4
AWAY FC Bari 1908
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs FC Bari 1908
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Bari 1908 edged past Frosinone 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; FC Bari 1908 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Frosinone had 49% of the ball to FC Bari 1908's 51%, shots finished 11-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Frosinone had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Frosinone and 0.83 for FC Bari 1908.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs FC Bari 1908?

Frosinone 3-4 FC Bari 1908 in the Friendlies on 24/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs FC Bari 1908?

Before kick-off our model rated a Frosinone win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 39%, draw 24%, FC Bari 1908 36%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Frosinone) ✗ Under 2.5
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