Aris Limassol 3-2 Puskas FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 24 Jul 2025

📅24/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 27% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Limassol EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Puskas FC EU Bookmakers 28%
+39% / +39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+19% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
420 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Limassol
3-2
AWAY Puskas FC
1.98 xG 0.95
39% Ball Possession 61%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
223 Passes 373
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 10
11 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aris Limassol vs Puskas FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Limassol nicked a narrow win over Puskas FC 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aris Limassol as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Aris Limassol had 39% of the ball to Puskas FC's 61%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.98 to 0.95.

What was the final score of Aris Limassol vs Puskas FC?

Aris Limassol 3-2 Puskas FC in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 24/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Limassol vs Puskas FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aris Limassol win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aris Limassol 45%, draw 27%, Puskas FC 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aris Limassol) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aris Limassol) ✗ Under 2.5
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