Southport vs Hereford FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Southport v Hereford FC — Team-Based Signals
Southport vs Hereford FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Southport 1-4 Hereford FC — Actual Match Statistics
Hereford FC cruised past Southport 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Hereford FC found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Southport had 42% of the ball to Hereford FC's 58%, shots finished 9-20.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Southport and 0.83 for Hereford FC.
What was the final score of Southport vs Hereford FC?
Southport 1-4 Hereford FC in the England - Conference on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Southport vs Hereford FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a Southport win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Southport 38%, draw 28%, Hereford FC 34%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.