Saarbrücken 2-3 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
20%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
9.78
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 29% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.9
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
14%
4.9
X/2
10%
6.69
X/X
15%
5.23
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
16%
4.47
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
2.34/2.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.47
+4% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
330 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
24.0 Crosses 19.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saarbrücken
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.01.2024 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 0-2 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
26.08.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-2 HT 1-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
18.02.2023 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 3-4 HT 2-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
13.08.2022 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
08.05.2021 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
19.12.2020 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 3-3 HT 2-3 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saarbrücken
2-3
AWAY Ingolstadt
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 20
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 14
247 Passes 268
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Saarbrücken vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt squeezed past Saarbrücken 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Ingolstadt found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Saarbrücken had 49% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 51%, shots finished 18-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ingolstadt led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Saarbrücken and 1.83 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Saarbrücken vs Ingolstadt?

Saarbrücken 2-3 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saarbrücken vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Saarbrücken 40%, draw 27%, Ingolstadt 33%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
24 Aug 2024
15:00 Rot-Weiss Essen vs Arminia Bielefeld Analysis →
15:00 Hansa Rostock vs Borussia Dortmund II Analysis →
15:00 Osnabrück vs Unterhaching Analysis →
15:00 Sandhausen vs Hannover 96 II Analysis →
17:30 Energie Cottbus vs Alemannia Aachen Analysis →