Saarbrücken 0-2 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.32
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
25%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 26% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.76
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
14%
4.54
X/2
14%
7.06
X/X
9%
4.7
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
13%
5.14
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.1pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.9pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
2.34/2.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.59
+3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
24.0 Crosses 17.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saarbrücken
0W-4D-1L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-2 HT 1-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
18.02.2023 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 3-4 HT 2-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
13.08.2022 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
08.05.2021 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
19.12.2020 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 3-3 HT 2-3 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saarbrücken
0-2
AWAY Ingolstadt
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Saarbrücken vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt saw off Saarbrücken 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Saarbrücken at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Saarbrücken had 59% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 41%, shots finished 18-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ingolstadt led the recent series with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Saarbrücken and 1.80 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Saarbrücken vs Ingolstadt?

Saarbrücken 0-2 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saarbrücken vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Saarbrücken 45%, draw 22%, Ingolstadt 33%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Saarbrücken), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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