Freiburg II 0-1 Verl — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 27 Jan 2024

Freiburg II
0-1 HT 0-1
Verl
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Freiburg II vs Verl Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.21
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.54
6+ Goals
11%
14.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.54 — our 26% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.92
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
25.0
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
7%
6.72
X/2
15%
4.56
X/X
13%
4.66
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
20%
2.87
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
29%
-0.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-0.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.1pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg II v Verl — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Verl EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.12/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.10/1.60
-13% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -32%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
293 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Freiburg II vs Verl Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg II
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Verl
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Verl Verl 3-2 HT 3-2 Freiburg II Freiburg II AL3
14.01.2023 Freiburg II Freiburg II 1-1 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
02.04.2022 Verl Verl 3-1 HT 2-1 Freiburg II Freiburg II AL3
23.10.2021 Freiburg II Freiburg II 3-2 HT 3-1 Verl Verl AL3

Freiburg II 0-1 Verl — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg II
0-1
AWAY Verl
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Freiburg II vs Verl
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Verl nicked a narrow win over Freiburg II 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Verl as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Freiburg II had 51% of the ball to Verl's 49%, shots finished 8-18.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Verl led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Freiburg II and 2.25 for Verl.

What was the final score of Freiburg II vs Verl?

Freiburg II 0-1 Verl in the Germany - 3rd Division on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg II vs Verl?

Before kick-off our model rated an Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Freiburg II 28%, draw 27%, Verl 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Verl) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Verl) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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