Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 Lübeck — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.43
6+ Goals
11%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 26% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.62
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
15%
4.34
X/2
12%
7.34
X/X
11%
4.87
2/1
10%
23.85
2/2
11%
5.44
2/X
6%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Lübeck EU Bookmakers 30%
+9% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
1.62/0.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.75
-4% / +135% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
Crosses 15.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Lübeck
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Lübeck Lübeck 1-1 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
16.05.2004 Lübeck Lübeck 2-2 HT 0-2 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
14.12.2003 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 Lübeck Lübeck AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-0
AWAY Lübeck
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Lübeck
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue saw off Lübeck 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 51% of the ball to Lübeck's 49%, shots finished 10-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.00 for Lübeck.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Lübeck?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 Lübeck in the Germany - 3rd Division on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Lübeck?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 47%, draw 24%, Lübeck 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✓ Under 2.5
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