Ulm 1846 2-2 MSV Duisburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.68
No
58%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.31
6+ Goals
8%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 32% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.67
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
21%
4.5
X/2
11%
7.31
X/X
8%
4.85
2/1
9%
23.85
2/2
19%
5.27
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.9pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.5pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+7.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
56%
-13.2pp
58%
BTTS No
44%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 30%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
1.99/0.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.62
+26% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
Crosses 15.2
3.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ulm 1846
0W-1D-0L
AWAY MSV Duisburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 9
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulm 1846
2-2
AWAY MSV Duisburg
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ulm 1846 vs MSV Duisburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulm 1846 and MSV Duisburg couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ulm 1846 at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ulm 1846 had 55% of the ball to MSV Duisburg's 45%, shots finished 12-10.

What was the final score of Ulm 1846 vs MSV Duisburg?

Ulm 1846 2-2 MSV Duisburg in the Germany - 3rd Division on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulm 1846 vs MSV Duisburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ulm 1846 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ulm 1846 44%, draw 22%, MSV Duisburg 34%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ulm 1846) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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