Vasco da Gama 2-3 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 24 Aug 2025

📅24/08/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.52
Over 2.5
47%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.09
No
48%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.2
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
5.08
6+ Goals
9%
32.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.91
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.55
X/1
13%
4.33
X/2
11%
7.01
X/X
11%
3.75
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
10%
6.05
2/X
9%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.5pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.3pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.38/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.35
+24% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
338 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 82%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
24.9 Crosses 16.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Corinthians
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.86 xG 1.02
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
342 Passes 447
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 Corinthians Corinthians 3-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
24.11.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 3-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
11.07.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
29.11.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-4 HT 2-2 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
30.07.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
21.02.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
2-3
AWAY Corinthians
1.53 xG 2.08
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
434 Passes 228
89% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians edged past Vasco da Gama 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Vasco da Gama at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 62% of the ball to Corinthians's 38%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.53 to 2.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vasco da Gama and 2.17 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

Vasco da Gama 2-3 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 24/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 45%, draw 27%, Corinthians 27%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vasco da Gama), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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