Corinthians 3-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
17.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 29% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.1
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.85
X/1
21%
3.68
X/2
8%
10.6
X/X
14%
5.0
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
7%
8.94
2/X
5%
17.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-6.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.9pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.75/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.61
+23% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
402 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
20.2 Crosses 18.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.16 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
401 Passes 362
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.07.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
29.11.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-4 HT 2-2 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
30.07.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
21.02.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
22.10.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
29.09.2019 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
3-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.20 xG 0.27
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
441 Passes 271
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
35 Box Touches 7
28 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians saw off Vasco da Gama 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Corinthians had 60% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 40%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.20 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Corinthians and 1.00 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama?

Corinthians 3-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 52%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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