Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
29%
4.49
Away
50%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.85
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.25
6+ Goals
8%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
12.65
1/2
7%
23.4
1/X
8%
21.45
X/1
6%
15.35
X/2
13%
3.44
X/X
14%
6.62
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.69
2/X
7%
20.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+7.5pp
29%
Draw
19%
+9.5pp
50%
Away Win
67%
-17.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.6pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 71%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.07/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/0.96
+12% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -18%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
242 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 82%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
17.7 Crosses 18.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.69 xG 1.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
326 Passes 366
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.07.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
11.10.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
17.06.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-2 HT 4-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
11.11.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
18.07.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-3 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
23.02.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
0-1
AWAY Palmeiras
0.24 xG 1.06
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
387 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras squeezed past Atletico Goianiense 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 55% of the ball to Palmeiras's 45%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.24 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 2.67 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?

Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 21%, draw 29%, Palmeiras 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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