Botafogo 1-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.53
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
27%
3.46
6+ Goals
9%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 27% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
19.7
X/1
22%
3.47
X/2
10%
14.65
X/X
8%
6.04
2/1
9%
24.3
2/2
6%
12.4
2/X
5%
20.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-10.2pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.8pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.3pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 16%
-5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.68/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.20
-2% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 76%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
25.1 Crosses 17.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Vitoria
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.58 xG 1.10
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
329 Passes 353
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.07.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
23.05.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BRK
03.05.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRK
30.09.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR2
01.07.2021 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
24.09.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 3-4 HT 1-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
1-1
AWAY Vitoria
1.82 xG 0.53
73% Ball Possession 27%
26 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 0
564 Passes 177
87% Pass Accuracy 70%
56 Box Touches 5
55 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo and Vitoria shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Botafogo at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Botafogo had 73% of the ball to Vitoria's 27%, shots finished 26-10, expected goals 1.82 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Botafogo and 0.67 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Vitoria?

Botafogo 1-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 56%, draw 24%, Vitoria 20%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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