Sao Paulo 2-2 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
5.7
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.83
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.0
X/1
16%
4.15
X/2
10%
7.73
X/X
15%
3.63
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
7%
6.78
2/X
7%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.1pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.1pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.29/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.24
+4% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
324 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
22.1 Crosses 19.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.93 xG 1.11
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
375 Passes 313
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
13.09.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
29.08.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
03.12.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
06.08.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
02.11.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 2-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
11.07.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-2
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.97 xG 1.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
483 Passes 409
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 2
22 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo and Atletico Mineiro shared the points in a 2-2 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 54% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 46%, shots finished 13-3, expected goals 0.97 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro?

Sao Paulo 2-2 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 46%, draw 29%, Atletico Mineiro 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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