Bahia 1-1 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 24 Nov 2024

Bahia
1-1 HT 0-0
Atletico Paranaense
📅24/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
3.92
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
10.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.35
X/1
19%
4.16
X/2
9%
9.46
X/X
12%
5.4
2/1
6%
22.55
2/2
8%
6.97
2/X
7%
14.95
Value flag · 1/X at 14.35 — our 10% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.9pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.7pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Atletico Paranaense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.52/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.34
-6% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.3 Crosses 16.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.42 xG 1.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
341 Passes 372
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.07.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-3 HT 0-2 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
17.07.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-0 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.07.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
23.06.2022 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
10.10.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1

Bahia 1-1 Atletico Paranaense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-1
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.86 xG 0.81
74% Ball Possession 26%
25 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 1
596 Passes 169
92% Pass Accuracy 70%
41 Box Touches 7
46 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia and Atletico Paranaense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bahia had 74% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 26%, shots finished 25-6, expected goals 1.86 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bahia and 1.33 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?

Bahia 1-1 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Bahia 47%, draw 29%, Atletico Paranaense 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bahia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5
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