Corinthians 3-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.25
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.78
6+ Goals
11%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 27% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.02
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.9
X/1
24%
4.0
X/2
11%
11.25
X/X
10%
5.2
2/1
9%
24.65
2/2
8%
9.68
2/X
7%
18.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-7.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 21%
+8% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.72/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.60
+29% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -14%
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
476 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 74%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
20.1 Crosses 18.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.21 xG 1.11
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
413 Passes 357
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 3-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
11.07.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
29.11.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-4 HT 2-2 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
30.07.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
21.02.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
22.10.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
3-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.04 xG 0.55
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
425 Passes 362
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 10
9 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians cruised past Vasco da Gama 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Corinthians had 53% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 47%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 1.04 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Corinthians and 1.17 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama?

Corinthians 3-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 52%, draw 25%, Vasco da Gama 23%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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