Progreso 1-0 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 24 Aug 2025

📅24/08/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -15%
1.21/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.20
+2% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Danubio
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
31.05.2025 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
23.02.2025 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
12.10.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
06.04.2024 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
31.08.2022 Progreso Progreso 2-2 HT 2-0 Danubio Danubio URUK
15.02.2021 Danubio Danubio 0-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
1-0
AWAY Danubio
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso squeezed past Danubio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Progreso found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Progreso had 39% of the ball to Danubio's 61%, shots finished 7-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Progreso and 0.83 for Danubio.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Danubio?

Progreso 1-0 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 24/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Danubio win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Progreso 35%, draw 27%, Danubio 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Danubio) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Danubio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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