Caen 2-1 Amiens SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.76
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.2
X/1
16%
4.27
X/2
14%
7.19
X/X
14%
4.32
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
11%
5.72
2/X
6%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Amiens SC EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +8%
1.36/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.34
+2% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
21.6 Crosses 17.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Amiens SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.18 xG 0.74
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
352 Passes 379
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Caen Caen 2-0 HT 0-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
19.12.2023 Amiens SC Amiens SC 0-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
20.05.2023 Amiens SC Amiens SC 1-3 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
10.09.2022 Caen Caen 3-1 HT 0-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
16.04.2022 Caen Caen 1-1 HT 0-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
06.11.2021 Amiens SC Amiens SC 0-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
2-1
AWAY Amiens SC
1.20 xG 0.69
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
461 Passes 304
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 3
35 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Caen vs Amiens SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caen edged past Amiens SC 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Caen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caen had 60% of the ball to Amiens SC's 40%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.20 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caen had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Caen and 0.50 for Amiens SC.

What was the final score of Caen vs Amiens SC?

Caen 2-1 Amiens SC in the France - Ligue 2 on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Amiens SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Caen 41%, draw 28%, Amiens SC 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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