Dunkerque 2-1 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 24 Sep 2024

Dunkerque
2-1 HT 0-1
Bastia
📅24/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Dunkerque vs Bastia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.56
Over 2.5
35%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.39
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.01
6+ Goals
8%
29.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.39 — our 39% vs market 35.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.51
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
13%
5.81
X/2
12%
5.01
X/X
19%
3.67
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.64
2/X
5%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.6pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.6pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-1.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.9pp
35%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.0pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dunkerque v Bastia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
0.91/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.19
-24% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
319 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
18.4 Crosses 18.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Dunkerque vs Bastia Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Bastia
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.76 xG 1.22
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
374 Passes 259
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
14 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
05.12.2023 Dunkerque Dunkerque 0-5 HT 0-2 Bastia Bastia FR2
15.03.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-0 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
02.10.2021 Dunkerque Dunkerque 2-0 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2

Dunkerque 2-1 Bastia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
2-1
AWAY Bastia
1.71 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
313 Passes 260
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunkerque edged past Bastia 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (32% / 32% / 36%) promised a tight game; Dunkerque found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dunkerque had 54% of the ball to Bastia's 46%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.71 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Bastia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Dunkerque and 1.75 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Bastia?

Dunkerque 2-1 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 32%, draw 32%, Bastia 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bastia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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