Real Sociedad 1-0 Mallorca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 24 Sep 2025

📅24/09/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.71
Over 2.5
55%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.96
No
45%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.99
6+ Goals
11%
18.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.99 — our 25% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.27
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
12%
4.11
X/2
7%
9.33
X/X
8%
4.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
26.0
2/2
11%
7.97
2/X
8%
16.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
54%
+0.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
55%
-9.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
45%
+9.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.6pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Mallorca EU Bookmakers 23%
-6% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.44/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.36
-14% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
400 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 70%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.7 Crosses 17.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Sociedad
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mallorca
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.20 xG 0.89
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
410 Passes 199
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.04.2025 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0-2 HT 0-1 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
17.09.2024 Mallorca Mallorca 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
27.02.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-1 HT 0-0 Mallorca Mallorca İSPK
18.02.2024 Mallorca Mallorca 1-2 HT 1-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
06.02.2024 Mallorca Mallorca 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İSPK
21.10.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-0 HT 0-0 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Sociedad
1-0
AWAY Mallorca
2.76 xG 0.70
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 2
449 Passes 224
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 9
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Sociedad vs Mallorca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Sociedad nicked a narrow win over Mallorca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Sociedad as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Sociedad had 64% of the ball to Mallorca's 36%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.76 to 0.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Real Sociedad's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Real Sociedad and 0.83 for Mallorca.

What was the final score of Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?

Real Sociedad 1-0 Mallorca in the Spain - Primera Liga on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Sociedad win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Real Sociedad 54%, draw 23%, Mallorca 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Sociedad) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Sociedad) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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