Birkirkara 1-0 Naxxar Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 24 Sep 2025

📅24/09/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.13
No
50%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
31%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
60%
-7.3pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
43%
+7.1pp
50%
BTTS No
57%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birkirkara EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 19%
-15% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.28/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.41
-13% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birkirkara
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Naxxar Lions
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2025 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 2-1 HT 1-1 Birkirkara Birkirkara MALTP
02.11.2024 Birkirkara Birkirkara 1-0 HT 0-0 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
14.03.2024 Birkirkara Birkirkara 0-2 HT 0-1 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
26.11.2023 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 2-0 HT 0-0 Birkirkara Birkirkara MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birkirkara
1-0
AWAY Naxxar Lions
39% Ball Possession 61%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
7 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Birkirkara vs Naxxar Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birkirkara nicked a narrow win over Naxxar Lions 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Birkirkara as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Birkirkara had 39% of the ball to Naxxar Lions's 61%, shots finished 5-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Naxxar Lions led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Birkirkara and 1.50 for Naxxar Lions.

What was the final score of Birkirkara vs Naxxar Lions?

Birkirkara 1-0 Naxxar Lions in the Malta - Premier League on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birkirkara vs Naxxar Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birkirkara win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Birkirkara 52%, draw 28%, Naxxar Lions 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birkirkara), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Birkirkara) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MLTP More Malta - Premier League
24 Sep 2025
19:45 Sliema Wanderers vs Gzira United Analysis →
22:00 Valletta vs Mosta Analysis →
22:00 Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick Analysis →