Karabağ 0-3 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 24 Oct 2024

Karabağ
0-3 HT 0-1
Ajax
📅24/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
UEFA Europa League – 2024/2025

Karabağ vs Ajax Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.29
Over 2.5
47%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.49
No
54%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
4.81
2-3 Goals
35%
1.93
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
11%
7.67
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.81 — our 32% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.48
1/2
4%
25.5
1/X
7%
12.1
X/1
18%
5.91
X/2 EV+ ✗
21%
5.95
X/X
10%
5.34
2/1
5%
24.85
2/2
16%
3.52
2/X
7%
12.1
Value flag · X/2 at 5.95 — our 21% vs market 12.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-2.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+4.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
40%
+13.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
60%
-13.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
63%
-17.1pp
54%
BTTS No
37%
+17.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Karabağ v Ajax — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.37/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.50
+6% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
37.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
19.5 Crosses 14.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.7

Karabağ 0-3 Ajax — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karabağ
0-3
AWAY Ajax
0.17 xG 2.56
44% Ball Possession 56%
2 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 2
339 Passes 482
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 19
7 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax ran out comfortable winners over Karabağ 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; Ajax found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Karabağ had 44% of the ball to Ajax's 56%, shots finished 2-14, expected goals 0.17 to 2.56.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Ajax?

Karabağ 0-3 Ajax in the UEFA Europa League on 24/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 36%, draw 24%, Ajax 40%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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