Midtjylland 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 24 Oct 2024

📅24/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.58
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 26% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.2
1/2
9%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
20%
5.15
X/2
12%
6.33
X/X
12%
4.68
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
13%
4.29
2/X
8%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.89/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/0.38
+7% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
394 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
15.5 Crosses 23.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Midtjylland
1-0
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.75 xG 0.74
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
299 Passes 394
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Midtjylland vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland nicked a narrow win over Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Midtjylland as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Midtjylland had 44% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 56%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.75 to 0.74.

What was the final score of Midtjylland vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Midtjylland 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise in the UEFA Europa League on 24/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Midtjylland vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated a Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Midtjylland 41%, draw 26%, Union Saint-Gilloise 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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