Roma 1-0 Dynamo Kiev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 24 Oct 2024

📅24/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.32
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 27% vs market 19.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.53
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
22.3
X/1
18%
3.38
X/2
7%
19.35
X/X
12%
6.97
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
6%
16.1
2/X
5%
23.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
71%
-13.2pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.1pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.5pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Dynamo Kiev EU Bookmakers 14%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.55/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.45
+26% / +128% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
433 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.1
19.7 Crosses 8.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Dynamo Kiev
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
14 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
27.11.2007 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev 1-4 HT 0-3 Roma Roma ŞMP
19.09.2007 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 1-0 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev ŞMP
23.11.2004 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev 2-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma ŞMP
15.09.2004 Roma Roma 0-3 HT 0-1 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
1-0
AWAY Dynamo Kiev
2.35 xG 0.76
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
513 Passes 283
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Roma vs Dynamo Kiev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma edged past Dynamo Kiev 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Roma had 61% of the ball to Dynamo Kiev's 39%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.35 to 0.76 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roma's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roma and 1.50 for Dynamo Kiev.

What was the final score of Roma vs Dynamo Kiev?

Roma 1-0 Dynamo Kiev in the UEFA Europa League on 24/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Dynamo Kiev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Roma 58%, draw 23%, Dynamo Kiev 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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