Almere City 1-3 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 24 Oct 2025

📅24/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.57
6+ Goals
13%
6.17
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.05
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.05
X/1
16%
4.48
X/2
10%
10.05
X/X
10%
6.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.15
2/2
8%
7.01
2/X
6%
15.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.15 — our 9% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.5pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.8pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.9pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 24%
-12% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
1.80/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.50
-7% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
24.7 Crosses 10.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
3W-0D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.50 xG 1.37
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
318 Passes 342
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2023 Almere City Almere City 2-1 HT 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
22.08.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
06.05.2022 Almere City Almere City 0-3 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
09.08.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
15.01.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-5 HT 1-4 Almere City Almere City HOL2
06.11.2020 Almere City Almere City 2-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
1-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.51 xG 1.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 2
366 Passes 325
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 20
31 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almere City vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II saw off Almere City 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Almere City at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Almere City had 54% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 46%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.51 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Almere City and 1.83 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Almere City vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Almere City 1-3 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 24/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almere City win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Almere City 52%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar II 25%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Almere City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almere City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
24 Oct 2025
21:00 RKC Waalwijk vs Cambuur Analysis →
21:00 Vitesse vs Roda Analysis →
21:00 De Graafschap vs PSV II Analysis →
21:00 Ajax II vs Emmen Analysis →
21:00 Utrecht II vs FC Oss Analysis →
21:00 Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht Analysis →