De Graafschap 3-2 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 24 Oct 2025

📅24/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.17
Over 2.5
66%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.35
No
35%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
7.76
2-3 Goals
37%
2.29
4-5 Goals
29%
2.29
6+ Goals
18%
3.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.17
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
15%
5.0
X/2
10%
9.34
X/X
9%
7.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
17.0
2/2
10%
5.64
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.0 — our 8% vs market 3.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.3pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.9pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.1pp
34%
Under 2.5
28%
+5.8pp
66%
Over 2.5
72%
-5.8pp
65%
BTTS Yes
70%
-5.2pp
35%
BTTS No
30%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.93/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.73
+3% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
351 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
24.5 Crosses 11.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
5W-0D-1L
AWAY PSV II
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.64 xG 1.09
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
343 Passes 394
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.02.2025 PSV II PSV II 1-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
18.10.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-1 HT 2-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
22.01.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 4-2 HT 3-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
15.09.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-3 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
17.03.2023 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.11.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-2 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
3-2
AWAY PSV II
3.82 xG 2.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
38 Total Shots 26
15 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 5
357 Passes 338
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
48 Box Touches 38
16 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap squeezed past PSV II 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (65%) came in.

On the day, De Graafschap had 52% of the ball to PSV II's 48%, shots finished 38-26, expected goals 3.82 to 2.14 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold De Graafschap's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for De Graafschap and 1.50 for PSV II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs PSV II?

De Graafschap 3-2 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 24/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 53%, draw 21%, PSV II 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
24 Oct 2025
21:00 RKC Waalwijk vs Cambuur Analysis →
21:00 Vitesse vs Roda Analysis →
21:00 Ajax II vs Emmen Analysis →
21:00 Almere City vs AZ Alkmaar II Analysis →
21:00 Utrecht II vs FC Oss Analysis →
21:00 Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht Analysis →