PSV II 1-2 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 28 Feb 2025

📅28/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
50%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.96
Over 2.5
60%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.62
2-3 Goals
35%
2.13
4-5 Goals
29%
2.36
6+ Goals
14%
4.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.69
1/2 EV+ ✗
16%
17.45
1/X
9%
15.85
X/1
9%
11.5
X/2
14%
4.49
X/X
8%
7.65
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
21%
1.86
2/X
6%
14.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 17.45 — our 16% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
19%
+7.1pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.9pp
50%
Away Win
61%
-11.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.6pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 66%
-3% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.07/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/0.97
+21% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 78%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.9
13.1 Crosses 22.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
1W-1D-4L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.89 xG 1.61
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
378 Passes 336
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-1 HT 2-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
22.01.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 4-2 HT 3-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
15.09.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-3 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
17.03.2023 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.11.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-2 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
29.04.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
1-2
AWAY De Graafschap
1.67 xG 1.18
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
430 Passes 286
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 29
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH PSV II vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap nicked a narrow win over PSV II 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV II had 59% of the ball to De Graafschap's 41%, shots finished 21-17, expected goals 1.67 to 1.18 — on chances, PSV II could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for PSV II and 2.50 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of PSV II vs De Graafschap?

PSV II 1-2 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 28/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated an De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split PSV II 26%, draw 24%, De Graafschap 50%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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