De Graafschap 3-1 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
3.68
Over 2.5
68%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.43
No
39%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
9.52
2-3 Goals
38%
2.5
4-5 Goals
29%
2.33
6+ Goals
18%
3.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.61
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.65
X/1
9%
4.08
X/2
7%
15.0
X/X
8%
9.43
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
16.7
2/2
10%
9.0
2/X
6%
17.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 16.7 — our 15% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.2pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.9pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.3pp
32%
Under 2.5
24%
+8.3pp
68%
Over 2.5
76%
-8.3pp
61%
BTTS Yes
66%
-4.9pp
39%
BTTS No
34%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 19%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +3%
1.85/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.91
-4% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
25.7 Crosses 11.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
4W-1D-1L
AWAY PSV II
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.57 xG 0.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
319 Passes 385
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.01.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 4-2 HT 3-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
15.09.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-3 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
17.03.2023 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.11.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-2 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
29.04.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
06.12.2021 PSV II PSV II 2-3 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
3-1
AWAY PSV II
1.60 xG 0.47
46% Ball Possession 54%
23 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
331 Passes 395
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap got the better of PSV II 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (68%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, De Graafschap had 46% of the ball to PSV II's 54%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.60 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for De Graafschap and 1.67 for PSV II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs PSV II?

De Graafschap 3-1 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 55%, draw 22%, PSV II 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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