Moreirense 2-1 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
5.91
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
58%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.06
No
49%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.3
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.66
6+ Goals
10%
14.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
11.8
1/2
10%
25.0
1/X
6%
19.9
X/1
5%
13.75
X/2
24%
3.51
X/X
14%
5.57
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.82
2/X
5%
18.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
14%
+2.7pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.6pp
58%
Away Win
64%
-6.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 69%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +16%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +150%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
191 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 437 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
Crosses 16.8
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Porto
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.45 xG 2.42
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 9
190 Passes 472
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
31.10.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense PORLC
20.01.2024 Porto Porto 5-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
14.08.2023 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
20.02.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
19.09.2021 Porto Porto 5-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
26.04.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
2-1
AWAY Porto
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense squeezed past Porto 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Porto at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Moreirense had 36% of the ball to Porto's 64%, shots finished 7-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Moreirense and 2.67 for Porto.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Porto?

Moreirense 2-1 Porto in the Portugal - Cup on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 17%, draw 25%, Porto 58%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Porto), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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