Alfreton Town 2-3 Needham Market — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.74
Over
40%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.73
2-3
43%
1.72
4-5
18%
3.82
6+
8%
17.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.73 — our 31% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.2pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.2pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
54%
+6.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
46%
-6.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.9pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town The Market 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Needham Market The Market 21%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.77/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.79
-4% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
363 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Needham Market
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2024 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-2 HT 2-0 Needham Market Needham Market İNFAT
26.08.2024 Needham Market Needham Market 0-2 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
2-3
AWAY Needham Market
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Needham Market
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Needham Market nicked a narrow win over Alfreton Town 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Alfreton Town at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 45% of the ball to Needham Market's 55%, shots finished 13-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Alfreton Town and 1.00 for Needham Market.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Needham Market?

Alfreton Town 2-3 Needham Market in the England - Conference on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Needham Market?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 49%, draw 29%, Needham Market 22%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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