Aveley 2-1 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.9
Over 2.5
41%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.73
No
62%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.36
6+ Goals
7%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 34% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
49%
+10.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
51%
-10.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
54%
-15.4pp
62%
BTTS No
46%
+15.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aveley EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 49%
-10% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -19%
1.27/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.34
-2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -10%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
242 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aveley
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Farnborough
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.10.2024 Farnborough Farnborough 2-0 HT 0-0 Aveley Aveley İCON
16.03.2024 Farnborough Farnborough 3-1 HT 2-1 Aveley Aveley İCON
02.12.2023 Aveley Aveley 3-4 HT 1-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aveley
2-1
AWAY Farnborough
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aveley vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aveley squeezed past Farnborough 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Farnborough at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aveley had 55% of the ball to Farnborough's 45%, shots finished 15-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Farnborough led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aveley and 3.00 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Aveley vs Farnborough?

Aveley 2-1 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aveley vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aveley 30%, draw 25%, Farnborough 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Farnborough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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