Weston-super-Mare 1-4 Welling United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.9
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
15.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Weston-super-Mare EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Welling United EU Bookmakers 23%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.93/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.68
+8% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
438 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Weston-super-Mare
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Welling United
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.10.2024 Welling United Welling United 1-3 HT 1-2 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare İCON
16.03.2024 Welling United Welling United 3-1 HT 1-0 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare İCON
02.12.2023 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare 4-2 HT 1-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
POST-MATCH Weston-super-Mare vs Welling United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Welling United cruised past Weston-super-Mare 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Weston-super-Mare at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Weston-super-Mare had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Weston-super-Mare and 2.00 for Welling United.

What was the final score of Weston-super-Mare vs Welling United?

Weston-super-Mare 1-4 Welling United in the England - Conference on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Weston-super-Mare vs Welling United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Weston-super-Mare win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Weston-super-Mare 52%, draw 24%, Welling United 24%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Weston-super-Mare) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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