Ayr United 2-1 Partick Thistle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.8
Over 2.5
55%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.88
No
44%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.96
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.55
6+ Goals
11%
14.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.55 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.27
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
17%
4.16
X/2
10%
9.02
X/X
14%
4.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.3
2/2
11%
7.41
2/X
7%
16.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.8pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.5pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Partick Thistle EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
1.75/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.67
-2% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
263 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.7
5.0 Crosses 26.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Partick Thistle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Corners 6
07.12.2024 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle 1-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
14.09.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 1-0 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle İKCL
27.04.2024 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle 0-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
27.02.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 4-3 HT 3-1 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle İKCL
31.10.2023 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle 2-2 HT 1-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
15.09.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 0-4 HT 0-1 Partick Thistle Partick Thistle İKCL
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Partick Thistle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United squeezed past Partick Thistle 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ayr United as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Partick Thistle led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ayr United and 1.83 for Partick Thistle.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Partick Thistle?

Ayr United 2-1 Partick Thistle in the Scotland - Championship on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Partick Thistle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 45%, draw 28%, Partick Thistle 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ayr United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ayr United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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