Casertana 1-1 ACR Messina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.76
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.67
Over
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.56
2-3
43%
1.71
4-5
20%
4.09
6+
8%
20.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
53%
-10.9pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.0pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+7.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.4pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casertana The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY ACR Messina The Market 22%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.44/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.24
-9% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casertana
2W-2D-1L
AWAY ACR Messina
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
20.09.2024 ACR Messina ACR Messina 2-2 HT 2-0 Casertana Casertana İTC
14.01.2024 Casertana Casertana 0-2 HT 0-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
11.10.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-1 HT 0-0 Casertana Casertana İTC
21.12.2015 Casertana Casertana 4-1 HT 2-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
15.02.2015 Casertana Casertana 3-1 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casertana
1-1
AWAY ACR Messina
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Casertana vs ACR Messina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casertana and ACR Messina shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Casertana at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Casertana had 52% of the ball to ACR Messina's 48%, shots finished 18-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Casertana had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Casertana and 1.40 for ACR Messina.

What was the final score of Casertana vs ACR Messina?

Casertana 1-1 ACR Messina in the Italy - Serie C on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casertana vs ACR Messina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casertana win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Casertana 42%, draw 31%, ACR Messina 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Casertana) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Casertana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
25 Jan 2025
17:00 Novara vs Pro Patria Analysis →
17:00 Renate vs Virtus Verona Analysis →
17:00 Clodiense vs Arzignano Valchiampo Analysis →
17:00 Atalanta II vs Lumezzane Analysis →
17:00 Athletic Carpi vs SPAL Analysis →
17:00 Pineto vs Sassari Torres Analysis →