Hertha Berlin 2-3 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.43
No
43%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.61
6+ Goals
13%
6.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
3.76
1/2
6%
22.1
1/X
10%
12.35
X/1
12%
6.43
X/2
15%
5.79
X/X
9%
5.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.3
2/2
22%
3.2
2/X
9%
12.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
36%
-6.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.8pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
66%
-8.6pp
43%
BTTS No
34%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 43%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.57/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.46
+37% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -13%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 81%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
16.9 Crosses 18.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hertha Berlin
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Hamburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.20 xG 1.78
46% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
322 Passes 409
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 25
24 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
03.02.2024 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 1-2 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
06.12.2023 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 3-3 HT 1-2 Hamburg Hamburg AFK
19.08.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 3-0 HT 2-0 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
23.05.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1P
19.05.2022 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 0-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1P
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hertha Berlin
2-3
AWAY Hamburg
2.62 xG 0.79
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
429 Passes 265
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
40 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hertha Berlin vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg edged past Hertha Berlin 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hamburg as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hertha Berlin had 61% of the ball to Hamburg's 39%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 2.62 to 0.79 — on chances, Hertha Berlin could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hertha Berlin and 1.67 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Hertha Berlin vs Hamburg?

Hertha Berlin 2-3 Hamburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hertha Berlin vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hertha Berlin 29%, draw 28%, Hamburg 43%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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