Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.33
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.75
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.54
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 24% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
71%
-12.4pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.5pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+7.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.5pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
1.80/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.64
+11% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
392 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
21.5 Crosses 9.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Istra 1961
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.28 xG 0.42
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
508 Passes 228
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 8
15 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 4
19.10.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
02.08.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 5-0 HT 3-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
07.04.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-1 HT 2-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
27.01.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
08.10.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 HT 1-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
29.07.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-3 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
3-1
AWAY Istra 1961
1.22 xG 0.23
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
453 Passes 297
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 5
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb got the better of Istra 1961 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 59% of the ball to Istra 1961's 41%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.22 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.50 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961?

Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 58%, draw 23%, Istra 1961 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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