HNK Gorica 1-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 25 Jan 2025

HNK Gorica
1-1 HT 1-1
NK Varazdin
📅25/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2024/2025

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.6
Over 2.5
35%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.95
No
63%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.41
2-3 Goals
35%
1.72
4-5 Goals
16%
4.4
6+ Goals
9%
23.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.41 — our 40% vs market 33.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+3.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.2pp
37%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.9pp
63%
BTTS No
53%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

HNK Gorica v NK Varazdin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.18/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.84
+25% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / +77%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
281 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 72%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
18.0 Crosses 16.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-2D-3L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.87 xG 1.50
49% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
331 Passes 348
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
20.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
03.08.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.03.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-4 HT 1-2 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
15.12.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-3 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.09.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR

HNK Gorica 1-1 NK Varazdin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.44 xG 1.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
6 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
299 Passes 323
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (65%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 49% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 51%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 0.44 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.50 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin?

HNK Gorica 1-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 37%, draw 27%, NK Varazdin 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/27/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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