AD Marco 09 1-3 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 25 Jan 2026

AD Marco 09
1-3 HT 1-2
Varzim
📅25/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 3rd Division – 2025/2026

AD Marco 09 vs Varzim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-0.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AD Marco 09 v Varzim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AD Marco 09 EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
0.69/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.06
-43% / +79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
281 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2

AD Marco 09 vs Varzim Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AD Marco 09
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Varzim
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.11.2025 Varzim Varzim 2-1 HT 0-1 AD Marco 09 AD Marco 09 POR3

AD Marco 09 1-3 Varzim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AD Marco 09
1-3
AWAY Varzim
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AD Marco 09 vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim got the better of AD Marco 09 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Varzim found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AD Marco 09 had 59% of the ball to Varzim's 41%, shots finished 12-14.

What was the final score of AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?

AD Marco 09 1-3 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 25/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated an Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AD Marco 09 33%, draw 29%, Varzim 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Varzim) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Varzim) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
25 Jan 2026
18:00 Sanjoanense vs Vitoria Guimaraes II Analysis →
18:00 Amarante vs Trofense Analysis →
18:00 Fafe vs Sporting Braga II Analysis →
18:00 Sao Joao Ver vs Paredes Analysis →