Novara 1-1 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
53%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.99
No
45%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.63
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.47
6+ Goals
10%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
31%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
24%
-2.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
53%
Away Win
50%
+2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
46%
+9.0pp
45%
BTTS No
54%
-9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 55%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.57/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.03
+149% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
249 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Mantova
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 Mantova Mantova 2-1 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
08.01.2023 Novara Novara 5-0 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
10.09.2022 Mantova Mantova 1-2 HT 0-1 Novara Novara İTC
11.04.2015 Mantova Mantova 1-2 HT 1-1 Novara Novara İTC
28.11.2014 Novara Novara 1-0 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
1-1
AWAY Mantova
23% Ball Possession 77%
2 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Novara vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara and Mantova couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Mantova at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Novara had 23% of the ball to Mantova's 77%, shots finished 2-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Novara had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Novara and 0.80 for Mantova.

What was the final score of Novara vs Mantova?

Novara 1-1 Mantova in the Italy - Serie C on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mantova win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Novara 21%, draw 26%, Mantova 53%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mantova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mantova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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